Despite the raw materials supercycle, 2022 will be a difficult year for industrial metals. China's credit momentum has fallen sharply this year, and with a lag of 11 months, it will affect metal prices. Perhaps we are approaching a tipping point, and in 2022 China will launch a real recession in the world. Last week, copper and other metals fell by 1.5-2%, due to the slowdown in China and a new strain of the virus. Metals feel a little better than oil.